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Wednesday, February 22, 2012

30 In 30 Part 1: Seattle Mariners

I have not posted in almost two weeks.  Since then, the subject of my last post has become a controversial figure.  Honestly, I have not felt that there were any stories that were of more importance than my time with family and school work.

This article starts 30 in 30, in which over 30 days which I cannot promise will be consecutive, I analyze all 30 Major League Baseball teams before the season starts which was something I tried on tumblr before last season.

Today's topic: The Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners are part of a group I like to call the "If Only Teams."  This list includes the Pittsburgh Pirates, Cleveland Indians and Oakland A's.  This of course means that if they were financially able to hold on to certain players, they would have a great team.

In the last two seasons, they had Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, Michael Pineda and Doug Fister in their rotation.  This was a formidable group of pitchers, three of which were traded to patch up holes in the M's terrible lineup.  Erik Bedard was also a Mariner in this period of time.  Injuries made the investment in him a colossal waste of money.
Time will tell who won the Pineda-Montero trade.

That being said, I have some terrible news for Seattle.  Jason Vargas might be your #2.

Projected Rotation
1. Felix Hernandez 14-14 3.47 ERA 222 K in Seattle
2. Jason Vargas 10-13 4.25 ERA 131 K in Seattle
3. Hisashi Iwakuma 6-7 2.42 ERA 90 K in Rakuten (Japan)
4. Hector Noesi 2-2 4.47 ERA 45 K in New York (Michael Pineda Trade)
5. Blake Beavan 5-6 4.27 ERA 42 K in Seattle
In The Mix
6. Charlie Furbush 4-10 5.48 ERA 67 K between Detroit and Seattle

As was the case with David Aardsma, who racked up 69 saves in two seasons for the M's, the Mariners latest middle relief reclamation project, Brandon League, has emerged as a solid closer.  He is followed in the bullpen Tom Wilhelmsen, Shawn Camp, Shawn Kelley, Hong Chih-Kuo and George Sherrill.  If two things are going to propel the Mariners into the pennant race, they would be the magic of youth and this underrated bullpen.

The Mariners need a better plan in Left Field, Third Base and Shortstop.  Aside from that, the Mariners lineup is filled with a combination of touted young players and proven veterans who are not looking at their best seasons such as Ichiro and Chone Figgins.  For that reason, I see no great strength in this lineup.  Not yet, at least.

X-FACTORS:
Rotation: Hisashi Iwakuma.  Japanese imports are always a wild card.
Lineup: 3B Chone Figgins.  If he can get on base this season, life will be easier for the kids in the lineup.
Bullpen: Hong-Chih Kuo.  A turn around season for Kuo could make Seattle's bullpen one of the best in baseball
The Kids: C/DH Jesus Montero.  A big year can absolve any criticism as a result of the Pineda trade.

TOP 100 Prospects: (Or what I will now refer to as the Royal list)
#6 C Jesus Montero: Comes to Seattle bearing more expectations than a kid should.  This year will be telling of Montero's resolve.
#20 RHP Tijuan Walker: Won't see MLB action this season.  You may get a taste of him in the Futures game this year or in 2013.
#21 LHP Danny Hultzen: Look for him to be up and in the rotation by the All-Star Break.
#52 LHP James Paxton: If Hultzen and Paxton can crack the rotation this season, it will make the Mariners look very smart.
#77 SS/2B Nick Franklin: Brendan Ryan's a solid shortstop, but not a long term solution.  If Franklin works out, it goes a long way toward long term success and shores up a middle infield with Dustin Ackley at 2nd.

PROJECTION: 3rd Place AL West, No Playoffs.
-I am not completely disqualifying this team from making noise this season.  This team is going to see more success this year as a result of being a year older and more complete.  This is definitely not a team that can compete with Texas or Anaheim for the division or the top teams in the AL East for a playoff spot.  However, look for this team to put up 80 wins this season.  I would give them a fighting chance in the NL Central.




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