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Thursday, March 29, 2012

30 In 30 Part 22: St. Louis Cardinals

David Freese, pictured signing autographs at Mizzou
Arena in Columbia, has been enjoying the life of a Cardinals hero
in an offseason that saw Albert Pujols leave for Anaheim.
Let me state for the record that there is no chance in hell that there is 12 in 12.

I lied.  In fact it has been the Cardinals runs in 2006 and 2011 that has proven that all that matters is reaching the postseason.  In that regard, they are the New York Football Giants of baseball.

However, there is a pink elephant under the arch.  That would be the departure of longtime First Baseman Albert Pujols.  In Missouri, I hear one of two things from people.  One is a hate-filled "how dare he."  The other is "Pujols leaving is offset by Wainwright's return."  The truth is that the Cardinals are like the Brewers.  They built a lineup around their slugger.  That is why the Brewers still have a good lineup and it is why the Cardinals will be okay.

If anything really "offsets" anything from the Cards' offseason, it was the signing of Carlos Beltran.  Beltran edged out Albert Pujols in VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) and Equivalent Average last season.  Equivalent Average is statistic measured on the same scale of batting average, but adjusted for certain variables such as venue and league.  Pujols was also bested in EqA in 2011 by current Cardinals Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday.  They also have an Elder Statesman in Yadier Molina and a bona fide postseason hero in David Freese.

What will hurt the Cards is that they lack depth in the rotation after Wainwright until Carpenter comes back in a couple of months.  This was a big reason behind the Oswalt to St. Louis rumors.  They also do not have quite the bullpen they had patched together last summer during trade season.  However, the Cards possess enough arms to compete for a division title and that is all you can ask for.

Oh, and for anybody who has not kept up with the Cardinals or Blue Jays in years past,  Rzepczynski is pronounced ZEP-CHIN-SKI.

X-FACTORS: 
Lineup: OF Carlos Beltran.  If he can put up similar numbers to last season, he can help offset the loss of Albert Pujols
Rotation: Adam Wainwright.  His return is everything to a pitching staff that is otherwise devoid of great arms at the moment.
Bullpen: Jason Motte.  This will be his first full season as the Closer.  He must be lights out in his role as the rest of the bullpen takes shape behind him.
The Kids: Nobody.  There is going to be no young blood in this clubhouse.  This will bode well for Manager Mike Matheny, who will inherit a clubhouse chock full of veteran leadership and devoid of big egos.

ROYAL LIST:
#8 RHP Shelby Miller: Should see some time in September.  Will hear a lot of jokes about his name.  You know there was a town named after him on The Simpsons?
#27 RHP Carlos Martinez: With a fastball that confuses more hitters than his documentation, Martinez will continue to tear up the minors in 2012.
#74 OF Oscar Taveras: Solid bat that has a couple more seasons in development
#88 3B Zack Cox: Projected to be a solid ballplayer.
#93 2B Kolten Wong: With Second Base being the token hole in the Cards' lineup, I would imagine they would be overjoyed if Wong pans out.
#94 RHP Tyrell Jenkins: Another sweet righty arm growing on the Cardinals farm.

PROJECTION: 2nd Place NL Central
-Pitching is what keeps this team from surpassing the Brewers.  It also might be what they pick up halfway through the season.  Don't sleep on the defending champs.

P.S. A shout out to my friend and Parkway West grad Sarah Billingsly who routinely listens to me give St. Louis crap.  Go Longhorns!

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