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| Zack Grienke leads a trade deadline class loaded with starting pitchers. |
Here we are again. It's the end of July. With only a handful of days left for non-waiver trades, the contending teams are trying to make moves. The difference this year is that there are more teams contending. 10 playoff spots are up for grabs and more than half of the Major League's teams can identify themselves as contenders. That being said, some important moves have been made in the last week and I am going to properly assess the direction the teams in this league are at as of Thursday, July 26th.
AL Central:
This is a three team race at the moment. The Twins are the biggest sellers in this division. All signs indicate that they will trade Francisco Liriano. However, Liriano did not do the Twins any favors in the department of trade value this week. Justin Morneau, Denard Span and Josh Willingham are all on the block but the Twinkies are said to have too high of an asking price. The Giants have been cited as a potential team involved in the Liriano and Willingham sweepstakes. As for the Royals, 2012 is not their time. They are still sitting on the gold mine of young talent that I have been waiting to come to fruition since 2008. They should not touch that gold mine. I have heard rumors that the Royals have a shot to land Josh Johnson of the Miami Marlins. The Marlins are asking for a Teixiera-eque package for Johnson and the Royals have that and then some. However, there is no point in trading for an injury-prone ace in a lost season.
The Tigers, White Sox and Indians are competing for the AL Central. The Indians just took a series from the Tigers and still have life. What the Indians haven't done was make a significant move. Never mind, they picked up Brent Lillibridge.
On a serious note, the White Sox picked up Kevin Youkilis and Brett Myers. Humber is back from the DL and John Danks may be coming back in the next couple of months. The Tigers traded a highly touted pitching prospect in Jacob Turner because they wanted to win the World Series in 2012. Not the American League Central. The World Series.
The Indians picked up J.C. Romero and Brent Lillibridge. If that is what they are content with, they will not be in this division come August 15th.
Projected Finish
1. White Sox
2. Tigers (Wild Card)
3. Indians
4. Royals
5. Twins
AL East:
The Yankees picked up Ichiro and lost A-Rod. it's no secret, however, that they have this division by the throat. Tampa Bay picked up Ryan Roberts and Designated Hideki Matsui for assignment this week. They are also looking to potentially move Wade Davis. Davis can start in most major league rotations. Tampa's staff is just ripe with quality arms. They are the only team in the AL East that I feel has what it takes to make a complete run at the Wild Card or even the Yankees. The Blue Jays are the only other team who seems to be serious about making moves. I can see them rustling up a package for Josh Johnson if the Marlins find what they want growing on Toronto's farm.
The Orioles and Red Sox need arms. I am wholeheartedly encouraging the Red Sox to sell and rebuild. They Sawx are due for a facelift and an excuse to can Bobby Valentine. They owe their fans more than trotting out the Daniel Navas and Pedro Ciriacos of the world in the long run. The Orioles and Blue Jays have Ryan Dempster, Wade Davis, Zack Grienke, Matt Garza, Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco and Randy Wolf to worry about at the moment. If either of those teams pick up two of those arms, look out.
Projected Finish
1. Yankees
2. Rays
3. Blue Jays
4. Orioles
5. Red Sox
AL West:
The Wild Wild West is run by the Rangers. They will make a run at Grienke to prove their point. They want a title. They will win this division. Dan Haren is back after getting roughed up on his way to the Angels. A reliable Haren is as good as picking up an arm for the Angels. They will pick up an arm or two if they want to. If the Angels want to win a Wild Card spot or even have a fighting chance at winning their division, they will pick up a stud arm.
The Oakland A's are 53-45. That would be good enough to lead the AL Central. If they playoffs started today, they would be in. Here's how they win. Pitching. They are in the bottom ten in the league in Slugging, On Base Percentage, Batting Average and Runs Scored. They are 8th or better in the league in ERA, Quality Starts, WHIP and BAA. Did you watch the All-Star game? If you did you might have watched man by the name of Ryan Cook pitch a perfect 7th inning. He has an ERA 1.70 with 10 Saves and 11 Holds. He was garbage last season in Arizona before getting shipped to Oakland in the Trevor Cahill trade.
Trading Craig Breslow, Andrew Bailey, Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill has built this 2012 A's team. Those trades netted Ryan Cook, Tommy Milone, Jarrod Parker and Josh Reddick. In ripping off the Red Sox, the A's acquired Reddick who accounts for a large portion of the offensive stats that Oakland does put up. Billy Beane's genius built a rotation that goes 5 deep of arms that register ERA's under 4. Tommy Milone, Jarrod Parker, Bartolo Colon, Travis Blackley and A.J. Griffin. Notice two things. First, Bartolo Colon is still alive and pitching. This shocks me. Second of all, Brandon McCarthy is not included here. However, when he hit the DL in June, McCarthy was 6-3 with a 2.54 ERA.
Billy Beane does it again. That's why, barring Anaheim dropping an atomic bomb, Oakland stays around long enough to win a Wild Card slot.
Projected Finish
1. Rangers
2. A's
3. Angels
4. Mariners
NL Central:
This year, the Pirates feel right. They picked up Wandy Rodriguez from Houston, Andrew McCutchen is playing like an MVP, they bullpen has been pieced together nicely and Starling Marte is on the roster. They take on the Reds and the Cardinals for the NL Central title.
The Reds are in first on strength of their pitching staff. Aroldis Chapman is a bona fide closer and Johnny Cueto is quietly having a great season. So great that I am going to toss the phrase "Cy Young" out there. If he keeps this up and his Reds win the NL Central, he should win the National League Cy Young.
The Birds can hit like there is no tomorrow. Lance Lynn has been outstanding in the rotation this year. The Birds, however, need to make a move for an arm. Here's what they had last season that they do not have today. A Colby Rasmus-esque position player who is expendable and that they could dangle around the trade market to get the relief pitching that wins championships. Believe me, if the Cardinals do not win a World Series without that trade. Scrabble, Octavio Dotel and Edwin Jackson were the secret sauce. Currently, their bullpen is nothing after Jason Motte.
The Birds have to dangle something valuable to get arms. Or else they will be the 2006 White Sox. A defending champ that finishes third behind two better teams while boasting a great lineup and a popular third baseman who just so happens to be a World Series hero. Tyler Greene can play the role of Brian Anderson. One thing that does swing in their favor, though, is having the best run differential in baseball.
Eyes will also be on the shores of Lake Michigan north of Madison Street in Chicago. The Cubs and the Brewers are arms dealers in the Midwest. Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Zack Grienke and Randy Wolf. They will all change colors in the next week, I would imagine. Welcome to Grienke-Mania. The White Sox, Rangers, Dodgers, Angels and Braves are the most likely suitors for Grienke. I've heard the Red Sox thrown into those rumors, but my advice to the Red Sox remains the same. Sell.
Milwaukee is brewing up a fire sale.
Projected Finish
1. Pirates
2. Reds
3. Cardinals
4. Cubs
5. Brewers
6. Astros
NL East:
It seems so long ago was the day the Mets were taking headlines from the struggling Yankees. Now the Mets are more than 10 games out of first. Props to the Metropolitans for making R.A. Dickey's knuckleball a "thing." He now replaces Tim Wakefield as Major League Baseball's Flagship knuckleballer. Now the Mets are between buying and selling. They will sell something by the deadline
Miami has already sold and Philadelphia is coming to grips with their role as losers this season. After moving Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante, which netted them a great return, the Marlins could be looking to move several players. Among said players are Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, Carlos Lee, Gaby Sanchez and Heath Bell. After watching The Franchise, I've grown fond of Heath throughout his trying season. I'm sure given an opportunity in the second half, Bell will be a solid setup guy. I would say the Yankees would pick him up, but Rafael Soriano is setting the league on fire.
Philly may just be stubborn and eat this season up and make no deadline moves. I have a feeling they will move Joe Blanton, Shane Victorino and/or Hunter Pence. The Phillies have depleted their farm system in their attempt to build a dynasty. They need to get some of it back.
All I can say about the Braves is that they are going to make a move. Washington's kids are going to face adversity this season. I believe that the guys in D.C. have the intestinal fortitude to win their division though. Remember that the Nats are the best in the National League, but they can easily slip and fall in this league.
Projected Finish
1. Nationals
2. Braves (Wild Card)
3. Phillies
4. Mets
5. Marlins.
NL West:
Arizona has been identified as sellers. 6.5 Games out as of Friday morning and the best run differential in their division. Sellers. Ryan Roberts has been moved. Justin Upton rumors have swirled. My advice is that if you guys want to sell, go for it. Keep Miguel Montero, Justin Upton, Paul Goldschmidt, Gerardo Parra, Trevor Cahill, David Hernandez, Wade Miley and Ian Kennedy together in Phoenix. Dangle J.J. Putz, Jason Kubel and Aaron Hill on the trade market and try to build up your farm system.
Plan B is to find viable replacements for Stephen Drew and Chris Young, man up as a team and make a run at the playoffs. Perhaps making a move for an arm, seeing that it is now officially open season on starting pitchers.
If Arizona wants to make a move, they must act quick. They are in Cleveland's situation. However, instead of adding marginal talent, they have subtracted marginal talent. As far as I know, the Dodgers are not content with merely acquiring Randy Choate and Hanley Ramirez. They will make another move and so will the Giants.
Speaking of LA and San Francisco, the bitter rivals will play this weekend by the bay. The Giants are probably the only team who do not need to make a move for an arm to make the postseason. In fact, if Tim Lincecum can return to form down the stretch, that will be the equivalent of making a move for an arm. Having a solid core in the lineup consisting of Melky Cabrera, Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey to complement baseball's best bullpen of the last few seasons makes San Francisco the most complete team in California.
As for the Dodgers, their lineup can carry them if they can get it together. Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and Hanley Ramirez have the potential to get hot and carry this team down the stretch. I have a feeling that LA will make one more move.
Projected Finish:
1. Giants
2. Dodgers
3. Diamondbacks
4. Padres
5. Rockies
In conclusion, this next week is an arms race. There are currently 19 teams that are contending by my count. 10 of them will make the playoffs. Where certain players, particularly starting pitchers are moved, will decide who makes it to October.
You can read this on August 3rd and 4th on Daily Shootout. Follow Mickey White on twitter at @NorridgeMadeMe and @MickeyWhiteCCG. Mickey White is a writer for Daily Shootout and a sophomore at the University of Missouri - Columbia.
