30 In 30 Part 13: Chicago White Sox

The waters that the White Sox are sailing are rough,
but in Paul Konerko they have one of the
best captains they could ask for to right the ship.

"Big-league players should be mentally tougher than to have that stuff bother you. And for the longest time, we were as a group. … It all came to a head. But that's how things end. If it didn't go like that, then no one would see a need to make a change. Some stuff like that has to happen to make a change."
—1B Paul Konerko, on how the problems behind the scenes last season did hurt the product on the field.


This quote, taken from Yahoo! Sports summed up the Chicago White Sox of yesteryear.  The Sox will start their 2012 campaign rid of Ozzie Guillen, Sergio Santos, Juan Pierre, Mark Buehrle and Carlos Quentin.  With all of the turnover in the clubhouse, it is fortunate for the Sox to have Paul Konerko as their captain and Don Cooper as their pitching coach.  The White Sox also have a new manager in Robin Ventura and a budding closer in Addison Reed.  As a Sox fan, I don't have the greatest memories of prospects with the name "Reed."

What you need to know about Robin Ventura is that he manned 3rd base for the Sox in the 90's, playing alongside the likes of Ozzie Guillen and Frank Thomas.  What you probably remember him from was him getting his ass beat by Nolan Ryan.  What you need to know about Addison Reed is that he was San Diego State's closer when Stephen Strasburg was an Aztec.

More changes are on the horizon in 2012 as Chris Sale is transitioning to the rotation and Dayan Viciedo will be starting the season in the lineup.  Kosuke Fukudome was brought in and is a platoon candidate with Alex Rios in Right Field.  Alejandro de Aza will start in Center Field and hit leadoff.  This will be an improvement because de Aza is less of a defensive liability than Juan D'Vaughn Pierre and will certainly get caught stealing less.

The three players who are on the hot seat going into 2012 are Adam Dunn, Alex Rios and Jake Peavy.  Dunn and Rios need to hit and Peavy needs to stay healthy for an entire season.  These three players having Comeback Player of the Year type seasons is imperative to the White Sox making any noise in 2012.  If the White Sox make it to the playoffs, the comeback player of the year will be on their squad UNLESS the Twins secure a playoff spot as well.

I do have guarded optimism that this team can make progress.  Don't count them out.  It just is not very likely that this team can do anything serious in 2012.  If they do, it takes a turnaround from everyone.

Everyone except Paul Konerko that is.

X-FACTORS:
Lineup: DH Adam Dunn.  Nobody's batting average drops 101 points overnight.  Dunn needs to figure himself out if the White Sox are even considering contending this year.
Rotation: Jake Peavy.  We've seen flashes of "Vintage Peavy."  He just needs to do that for a whole season now.
Bullpen: Matt Thornton.  This guy has no business closing.  I really hope to see him return to his role as All-Star Setup Man.
The Kids: RP Addison Reed.  This kid is the closer of the future.  He needs to work to assume that role in the near future

ROYAL LIST: 
#66 RHP Addison Reed.  I've said all I need to say about this kid for the moment.

PROJECTION: 2nd Place AL Central
-I can see this team winning around 85 games.  That will be an improvement, but I think it will take 90 to secure a berth in the Wild Card game.

These Horses Don't Ride No More

Peyton Manning will be calling the
signals elsewhere in 2012

After months of speculation, it is confirmed that Peyton Manning will not be a Colt as of tomorrow.

The Colts were in a position that was too good to pass up.  The Colts won the "Suck For Luck" sweepstakes.  They now have their pick between Baylor's Robert Griffin III and Stanford's Andrew Luck.  A selection between two franchise quarterbacks and an opportunity to build from scratch was more of a sure thing to Jim Irsay than on established superstar coming back from neck surgery to run the "Peyton Manning" offense.

The Colts fired head coach Jim Caldwell, vice chairman Bill Polian and General Manager Chris Polian after a 2-14 season without Manning.  The writing was on the wall when this happened.  That is when people grew even more suspicious that Manning would be done in Indy.  The $28 M he would be owed had the Colts chose to pick up the last four years on his contract also made people speculate on whether a new quarterback was a better option

There was a distance that grew between him and the front office.  Peyton Manning started speaking out, a trait you would expect more from his draft day counterpart Ryan Leaf.  By now, most people knew that he would not be back in Indianapolis this upcoming season.  Peyton Manning will be in a new uniform and for the second season since 1998, another quarterback will be starting in his place.  The new quarterback is presumed to be Andrew Luck, but no word on whether they intend to draft him or Griffin. Whichever one succeeds Manning in Indianapolis will bear the burden of living up to Peyton.

As for Peyton, he will most likely get no consideration in the best quarterback of all time debate.  Hell, this may be his last season depending on how his neck surgery goes.  However, he is a future first ballot Hall of Famer.  I will remember Manning's tenure for three things.  He ran his own offense, he broke Dan Marino's single-season touchdown record and he had difficulty beating New England in the postseason.

The shame in this whole ordeal is that Peyton Manning's career did not end with a teary-eyed press conference in Indianapolis.  It did not end with multiple Super Bowls.  It ended with a media affair and everyone's infatuation with a certain Stanford quarterback.  It ended with many familiar faces leaving town with him.  It ended after a lost season.

But that's life.

30 In 30 Part 12: Milwaukee Brewers

Ryan Braun (above) will face more scrutiny in
2012 than anyone else in baseball.

Let me preface this post by saying that this is the first preview of a team that I believe has a legitimate chance at a playoff spot.

The defending NL Central Champions are going to have a few major obstacles in their path.  Namely, not having Prince Fielder.  However, Ryan Braun took the cake when it comes to Brewer headaches.  Although his suspension was overturned, he is a cheater in the court of public opinion.  This should have no bearing on the Hall of Fame, because he most likely was not a future Hall of Famer in the first place.  This will, however, make Major League Baseball re-evaluate their protocol for testing samples from players.

The Brewers are still winners this offseason.  They have Braun to start the season and have adjusted to losing Fielder very nicely.  Mat Gamel moves over to first base with a chip on his shoulder and Aramis Ramirez signed with the Brew Crew to man third base.  Compare Aramis Ramirez hitting .306/26/93 on a poor Cubs team compared to Prince on a first place Brewers team hitting .299/38/120 on a 1st place Brewers team.  Granted, Ramirez will not command as many walks as Fielder.  However, is is not a complete drop off.  Rounding out the lineup by signing Alex Gonzalez was a smart move by the Brewers, who despite losing hitting coach Dale Sveum, will still be a dangerous offensive team.

Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy, Nyjer Morgan, Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart will also be in the lineup this year.  Hart is expected to join the team in the middle of April after having knee surgery today.  This is a deadly lineup without Prince Fielder.  Not Detroit Tigers deadly.  Not Philadelphia Phillies deadly.  Not Texas Rangers deadly.  But really close.

Their rotation will most likely consist of Zack Grienke, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum, Randy Wolf and Chris Narveson.  The first four of those pitchers are coming off of good seasons.  I expect at least three of them to continue that play this season.  On top of a rotation that has two aces, their bullpen has two closers.  K-Rod returns from setting up John Axford.  This pitching staff is every bit as deadly as the lineup. 

Everyone will get caught up in Fielder's absence and calling Braun a cheater.  Meanwhile, the Brewers will surprise people.

Here's why you should not be surprised.  The Brewers have followed the small market model to a tee.  Cultivate your core.  They brought up Fielder, Braun, Gamel, Hart, Weeks, Lucroy and Gallardo.  They had enough of their talent in 2008 to gel with their group of veterans that they made the playoffs.  After that, they were in a position to win so they made moves to bring in more of those pieces such as Marcum, Morgan and Wolf.  Then as buyers, they started trading prospects for established players such as Zack Grienke.  Eventually one or more of these players will leave for a big contract or for the fact that you cannot afford them.  In this case, it was Prince Fielder.  But as you see, this team is still formidable.

Take note Washington.  

X-FACTORS: 

Lineup: OF Ryan Braun.  The court of public opinion will make their mind up by the end of this season on whether this guy is a cheater.  If Braun continues to put up his usual numbers, he will be okay and the Brewers will not suffer two major losses from the last offseason.

Rotation: Randy Wolf.  He is a historically inconsistent pitcher.  If Wolf can keep his ERA under 4.50, the Brewers have one of the top three rotations in baseball.

Bullpen: Jose Veras.  Coming off a decent season in Pittsburgh, Veras has potential to lock down the 7th inning for the Brewers

The Kids: 1B Mat Gamel.  Power-hitting 26-year old who has proved nothing and is replacing Prince Fielder.  This selection was a no-brainer

ROYAL LIST: 

#56 RHP Wily Peralta: International signee who should be up at some point this season.

#70 RHP Taylor Jungmann: Had a great career with the Longhorns.  Good candidate to be called up in September.

#71 LHP Jed Bradley: Another young arm that the Brewers are excited about.

PROJECTION: 1st Place NL Central

-They will face some stiff competition from the Reds.  The Pirates and Cardinals will also make a run at this division.  However, I feel that this is the Brewers' division.

30 In 30 Part 11: Minnesota Twins

Will this be the last season for Justin Morneau?

If there's one thing I would like to reiterate throughout this series, second place in the AL Central is up for grabs.

That being said, the Twins staying out of the cellar relies on the health and effectiveness of Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer.  The only everyday player they had in 2011 who is still with the team is Danny Valencia.  They brought Josh Willingham to help protect Morneau and Mauer.  They also picked up Ryan Doumit who can catch, play the outfield and DH occasionally.

As for the rotation, Scott Baker is the only returning starter who posted an ERA under 4 in 2011.  Carl Pavano, Brian Duensing and Francisco Liriano really need to get it together if the Twins can dream of competing for a wild card spot.  In the bullpen, Glen Perkins was the lone bright spot.  The veteran cemented his status as setup man to Matt Capps.  Capps himself was not very impressive, blowing nearly 40 percent of his save opportunities.

To sum up the last two paragraphs, the team fell apart around Morneau and Mauer.  Jason Kubel, Delmon Young and Joe Nathan all play for different teams and the Twins have to rebuild.  Everybody on the roster has to have a comeback season and that starts with Morneau and Mauer.  This team is a shell of the teams of years past that would give other teams fits.  As a White Sox fan, I would ask myself these questions many times over the last ten seasons

1) Where did this pitcher come from? (Liriano, Guerrier, Baker, Blackburn, Duensing, Perkins, Garza, Silva, Bonser, Crain, Neshek, Reyes, Slowey etc.)
-The Twins of the 2000's had a new middle reliever that would kill the White Sox every year.

2) How did they flip the lineup over so quickly?  I thought we weren't going to see Mauer and Morneau for another couple of innings.
-The Twins of the 2000's also played the game of baseball very well.  They did a lot of the little things right.  I attribute that to their historically fertile farm system and the managing genius that is Rod Gardenhire.

These Twins may be a thing of a past.  Two years ago, there was talk that Mauer would go down as the best catcher of all time.  Now he is an injury prone catcher who has a reputation for being an outstanding hitter.  Justin Morneau might have his career cut tragically short because of this one play.

It would truly be a sad ending to this era of Minnesota Twins if injuries mark the early demise of their greatest franchise players since Kent Hrbek and Kirby Puckett.

X-FACTORS:
Rotation: Francisco Liriano.  Out of all of the underachieving pitchers in this rotation, he has the most talent.  He just needs to demonstrate it for an entire season.

Lineup: 1B Justin Morneau.  This season may very well be his last.  By September, we will know if his career will fall victim to concussions.

Bullpen: Matt Capps.  Joe Nathan is gone.  Capps needs to man up and anchor the ninth inning.

The Kids: OF Ben Revere.  This kid can play the field, steal and hit well enough to get on base.  Will set the table for the rest of this lineup.

ROYAL LIST:
#18 3B/SS Miguel Sano.  Teenager who will not see any big league action this year.  Has some pop and a poor glove.
#99 OF Joe Benson.  Expected to be called up this season.  Could fill in for any injuries that occur this season.

PREDICTION: 3rd Place AL Central
-This is provided that Morneau and Mauer play a healthy season.  If they can get everyone to turn it around, the Twins can be dangerous and possibly compete for the Wild Card.  If the Twins have the injury bug this year, they will finish last.

30 In 30 Part 10: Colorado Rockies

Carlos Gonzalez (left) and Troy Tulowitzki (right) come into
2012 with a chip on their shoulder after winning only 73 games in 2011.

The Rockies have two franchise players in Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzaelz.  They are surrounded by six other veterans in the lineup.  What they don't have is pitching.

Rafael Betancourt is finally getting his shot to close in Colorado and Jhoulys Chacin will be the best starter the Rockies have to start the season.  Betancourt clearly out-pitched Huston Street last season    After that comes a small drop off in experience.  The Rockies have attempted to bolster their pitching staff this offseason by trading Seth Smith to Oakland for Josh Outman and Guillermo Moscoso.  The Rockies will rely on Matt Belisle and Rex Brothers help Betancourt shore up the back of the bullpen.  The Rockies expect two of the arms they acquired in the Ubaldo Jimenez trade, Alex White and Drew Pomeranz, to make some contribution to the major league squad this season. They also picked up Jeremy Guthrie this offseason, who has lost 17 games in two of the last three seasons in Baltimore.

The Rockies expect to get Jorge de la Rosa back from Tommy John surgery between May and June which will help them have some balance in their rotation if he is effective upon his return.

The biggest acquisition for the Rockies was that of longtime Twins outfielder Michael Cuddyer.  They also picked up Tyler Colvin, Marco Scutaro and Casey Blake.  Colvin will get a chance to redeem his awful 2011 campaign in Chicago with a chance to come off the bench in Colorado if his spring training is good enough.  Scutaro comes from the is expected to help shore up second base for the Rockies; a position that eight people started for the Rockies last season.  Casey Blake left L.A. for Colorado after an injury-plagued 2011 season and is expected to make contributions to the lineup and clubhouse if he can stay healthy for most of the season.

Speaking of the clubhouse, Juan Nicasio is back and ready to go.  Yes, this Juan Nicasio.  This man will have the respect of every player in the clubhouse and has earned every bit of his man card.  Or as manager Jim Tracy puts it:

"Courage is not a strong enough word to describe what he's done."

Nicasio is expected to return to his middle relief role while the Rockies sort out their pitching staff this season.

The Rockies have a lot of experience in their lineup, and experience and chemistry are the only things that will help this team achieve anything in 2012.

X-FACTORS: 
Rotation: Jorge de la Rosa.  If he can have a successful comeback from Tommy john surgery, that may be enough to keep the Rockies out of the cellar.
Lineup: OF Dexter Fowler.  He needs to set the table for the rest of their lineup.  I see 30 steals in Fowler's future.
Bullpen: Rafael Betancourt. Betancourt gets his first shot start a season as the closer.  His success makes the Rockies bullpen legitimate with Belisle and Brothers behind him.
The Kids: RP Rex Brothers.  This is the second season for who the Rockies project as their closer for the future.  Rex has a chance to shine in relative anonymity pitching behind Rafael Betancourt in the the pen.

ROYAL LIST: 
#30. LHP Drew Pomeranz: One of the arms the Rockies got in return for parting ways with Ubaldo Jimenez.
#42. 3B Nolan Arenado: Good chance you could see this kid in September.  Should fare better than Ian Stewart.
#86. RHP Chad Bettis: Another kid that should be getting some looks in December.
#87. C Willin Rosario: Future is questionable after post-injury performance in 2011.

PREDICTION: 5th Place NL West
-I predict a lot of growing pains in the pitching staff and a lot of inconsistency in the lineup.  Even if things go right for this team, others are too good for them to take aim at the wild card.

30 In 30 Part 9: Cleveland Indians

The league's most exciting fielder, Asdrubal Cabrera,
was also the best offensive weapon for the Tribe in 2011.

Nobody expected this team to be competitive in 2011.

Somehow, they got off to a fast start and was still competing with underachieving teams in Detroit and Chicago.  This season, I expect none of that to happen.  The Indians have a lot of question marks in their lineup this season and even more in their pitching rotation.

Here's the sad part.

The Indians will contend for the wild card if they can get the Derek Lowe, Ubaldo Jimenez and Shin-Soo Choo that we saw in 2010.  Carlos Santana and Asdrubal Cabrera have established themselves as the faces of the franchise in 2011 and are expected to carry a lot of the load in the Tribe's lineup this season.

Expect some role players to be key in any Indians success this season.  Casey Kotchman needs to hit .300, Jason Kipinis needs to be productive and shore up second base, Travis Hafner needs to be able to play in more than 120 games and Michael Brantley needs to do a little bit of everything.

The rotation is shaky considering that Ubaldo Jimenez in 2011 was not the same as he was in 2010.  The rest of the rotation is full of young-but-not-really arms, the only one who has come into his own is Justin Masterson.  He is primed and ready to be the ace of the future after posting 12 wins and a 3.21 ERA last season.  The bullpen, in my opinion, is the best in their division.  It boasts Chris Perez, Rafael Perez, Tony Sipp, Vinny Pestano and Joe Smith.  These guys aren't horses like the back of Atlanta's bullpen, but expect results from these guys.

There's not much else to be said for this team.  Years of trading their stars for prospects has not payed off yet.  They will be battling three teams for second place this season.  If they can play up to their full potential, they may be facing a wild card berth.  I just do not see this team getting anything going this season.

X-FACTORS:
Lineup. Michael Brantley.  We know what Choo, Santana and Cabrera can do.  This has the potential to be a banner year for Brantley who is a solid all-around player.
Rotation: Ubaldo Jimenez.  If this guy is what he was in 2010, the Indians are in 2nd place.  Plain and simple.
Bullpen: Chris Perez.  Needs to dominate hitters like he did in 2010.  Considering he had 36 saves last season, one could imagine how scary he could be on a contending Indians.
The Kids: Jason Kipnis.  If he can swing the bat well, he may be able to plug a hole at second or third base for the next few seasons while the Tribe rebuild.

ROYAL LIST:
#37: SS Francisco Lindor.  Cleveland's only entry on this list and they won't be seeing this kid for a couple of seasons.

PROJECTION: 5th Place AL Central
Too many things need to fall into place for this team to get on the right track.  Lack of firepower keeps the Tribe in the basement.

30 In 30 Part 8: New York Mets

This team belongs to David Wright and Johan Santana.
However, it is in a bad place right now.

Let me start with a bold prediction.  Eight of the ten teams in "East" divisions will finish with winning records.  The Baltimore Orioles and the New York Mets will not.

On the bright side, Johan Santana threw a live batting practice session today.  

Coming back from a lost 2011 season and shoulder surgery, Johan Santana is a symbol of the Mets' luck since reaching the 2006 NLCS.  The Mets acquired Johan Santana, Jason Bay and Francisco Rodriguez over the next few years to keep a core of great players around Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes and David Wright.  Santana was nothing but good for the Mets, but as I had mentioned earlier, lost an entire season to shoulder surgery.  Francisco Rodriguez assaulted his father-in-law and is now in Milwaukee.  Beltran had injury trouble that plagued him long enough for the Mets to slip out of relevance.  He was traded last season and now plays for the St. Louis Cardinals.  Jason Bay came to New York in 2010, where he found immediate injury problems and loss of the ability to hit a baseball.  The icing on the cake came this offseason when Jose Reyes signed with the Miami Marlins.

So with that being said, kudos to Sandy Alderson for filling his major league roster with major league ballplayers.  Ramon Ramirez, Jon Rauch and Frank Francisco are invaluable additions to the bullpen.  R.A. Dickey has been the Mets' best starter over the last two seasons.  Johan Santana and David Wright are going to start the season healthy and the Mets have eight position players who can be classified as solid or better.

The problem for the Mets is that they play in the NL East.  The fourth best team in this division boasts Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, Gio Gonzalez, Edwin Jackson and John Lannan in their rotation. The third best team in this division has the best back of the bullpen in baseball.  The second best team features Ozzie Guillen, an offseason shopping spree, Hanley Ramirez, Josh Johnson and the artist formerly known as Mike Stanton.  The best team is the Philadelphia Phillies and I don't need to explain why they're good.

The Mets are not going to be an atrocious team this year if Wright and Santana can keep this team trying to play to the level of their division.  They just don't have the tools to climb out of the basement in what is now the second best division in baseball.

X-FACTORS:

Rotation: Johan Santana.  Any success in the near future for the Mets can only be accompanied by a successful comeback by Johan.

Lineup: 3B David Wright.  This is David's team now.  He needs to set the pace for this lineup.  

Bullpen: Jon Rauch.  One of three big bullpen acquisitions by the Mets.  Rauch is the only one of these three that is coming off a poor season.  Any contributions Rauch can make could possibly give the Mets the second best bullpen in the division.  

The Kids: SS Ruben Tejada.  With Reyes gone, Tejada has some big shoes to fill.  He may very well be the only kid on the Opening Day roster.

ROYAL LIST:

#35 RHP Zack Wheeler: Projected to come up in 2013.  I guarantee you see him in small doses in 2012.

#54 RHP Matt Harvey: Will also get some major league experience under his belt this season.

PROJECTION: 5th Place NL East

-It is Sandy Alderson's job to rebuild the Mets' farm system.  This team is going nowhere anytime soon.  This is David Wright's and Johan Santana's team now.  My condolences.